RBA rate forecast: what the market expects in November 2026

Four of the 31 lenders on our board have repriced their variable loans since the cash rate went to 4.85% last Tuesday. The big four have all picked the same date to follow: Friday 13 November.

The four that have moved are AMP Bank, BOQ, ME Bank and Unity Bank, each by 0.25 points. Our readings caught them between 7 and 8 November. Macquarie announced within the hour and set its new rate for 19 November, so the announcement and the repricing are separate events.

The ASX rate tracker had the December 2026 contract at 95.15 at Monday's close. It reads that as a 100 per cent chance the cash rate stays at 4.85% on 8 December, and zero chance of a cut. The implied yield for that month sits exactly on the cash rate, so no move in either direction is priced.

The curve barely moves for six months, then drifts lower. Implied yields peak at 4.885% in March 2027 and fall to 4.50% by April 2028, roughly one and a half cuts of 0.25 points across that stretch.

The economists are less settled. All four major banks expect a hold in December. Two of them keep a rise on the table: ANZ puts it in December or, less likely, February. Westpac says February is the more likely timing, but still a risk rather than its base case. CBA's Belinda Allen expects the Reserve Bank to "remain on edge as we enter 2027 but will ultimately keep rates on hold". She sees two cuts, in August and November 2027, taking the cash rate to 4.35%.

A market probability and a chief economist's call answer different questions. The tracker prices one meeting. A forecast covers two years, and the risk case is the part the market rounds away. Both can be right: no change on 8 December, from a board one bad inflation print from moving again.

The same arithmetic explains the clustering on 13 November. Four banks choosing the same day for the same 0.25 points is a convention. Repricing when your competitors do is the safe version of a repricing.

October employment lands on 19 November, and the monthly consumer price index on 25 November. The minutes of last week's meeting, out on 17 November, will say more about the 6-3 split than the statement did. Our own series will not show the majors' increase until Monday, since a new rate reaches us on its effective date, or the day after.

The best variable rate on our board has not moved yet. Greater Bank's Great Rate Home Loan sits at 6.10% comparison (6.09% advertised), ahead of Up at 6.20%, and Greater Bank is on the 13 November list too. On a $600,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest, a full 0.25 point pass-through from 6.09% is about $97 a month.

The rate and the repayment do not always arrive together. Beyond Bank's new variable rate starts 17 November. Its repayment changes on 11 January.