RBA raises the cash rate to 4.60% (September 2026)
by RatesBoard · 3 min read
Rates as at 30 Sept 2026
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% this afternoon. It is the fourth rise this year, a full point above where the cash rate started January, and the ABC puts it at the highest since late 2011.
The Board's statement says "some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising". It points to further disruptions to global oil supply, AI-related demand pushing up prices for technology goods, and growth and inflation "higher than expected". Its verdict: "inflation is still too high". The vote was unanimous, and the Board left room for "increasing the cash rate target further if needed".
Governor Michele Bullock told her media conference the Board weighed a hold against a 0.25 point rise. The argument for holding, she said, turned on domestic capacity pressures: "it's difficult to estimate output gaps and how tight the labour market is". We read her answers on the ABC's live blog; the RBA had posted no transcript by 5pm.
Few were surprised. The ASX rate tracker put a 92 per cent chance on this rise at Monday's close, up from 66 per cent on 8 September. All 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey expected it, the ABC reported on Monday.
The argument has moved to November. ANZ is the only big four bank forecasting another rise then, to 4.85%, according to Canstar. BetaShares' David Bassanese then called the RBA "a short-priced favourite" to lift again on Melbourne Cup Day, the ABC reported. Bullock was less committal: if the rises so far prove restrictive enough, "maybe there doesn't need to be any more interest rate rises". After she spoke, investingLive put the market's odds of a November rise at roughly 41 per cent.
On our board, fixed rates moved first. Eighteen of our 31 lenders lifted at least one fixed rate this month, by 0.10 to 0.60 points at a time, all recorded before the announcement.
| Lender | Largest net rise this month | Recorded |
|---|---|---|
| Beyond Bank | +0.60 points (1-year) | 29 Sep |
| Macquarie | +0.50 points (3-year) | 8 and 24 Sep |
| CBA | +0.48 points (2-year) | 22 Sep |
| Westpac | +0.40 points (2 to 5-year) | 19 Sep |
| ANZ | +0.20 points (2-year) | 17 and 29 Sep |
| NAB | +0.15 points (every term) | 18 Sep |
Recorded is when our 07:00 sync first saw the rate. ANZ's series is the odd one: its fixed rates rose on 17 September, fell back by the same amounts on 27 September, then rose again this morning. The published feed doesn't say why.
Lenders had a reason to move fixed rates first. A fixed rate commits the lender for years, so it is priced off where rates are expected to go, and those expectations rose through September. A variable rate can be changed at any time, so a lender loses little by waiting for the Board.
Variable rates are next. Macquarie lifts its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25 points from 15 October, the ABC reported. Just after 5pm, Finder's tracker listed no other lender's change. Our series picks up the new cash rate tomorrow morning, so pass-through is not yet measurable.
The cheapest comparison rate on our board is Greater Bank's variable loan at 5.85% (5.84% advertised). If your lender passes on the full 0.25 points, a hypothetical $600,000 loan at 5.84% over 30 years, principal and interest, costs about $96 more a month.
Today doesn't settle whether this is the last rise. Inflation figures land tomorrow, and Canstar names 28 October, when the September quarter figures arrive, as the date to watch. The Reserve Bank's next decision, with new forecasts, is on 3 November.