RBA rate forecast: what the market expects in September 2026

Commonwealth Bank lifted its two-year fixed rate by 0.48 percentage points, the largest single move on our board this week. It landed six days before the Reserve Bank decides.

Fourteen lenders moved a rate in the past week, ten of them on fixed terms, the four big banks among them.

Recorded is when our 07:00 sync first saw the rate. Westpac's St.George, BankSA and Bank of Melbourne brands raised five terms each on 19 September, by up to 0.45 points. Canstar's Sally Tindall read CBA's move as "a clear signal Australia's biggest bank is bracing for higher borrowing costs ahead".

The ASX rate tracker shows what they are bracing for. At Monday's close it put an 88 per cent chance on a rise to 4.60 per cent on 29 September, up from 66 per cent on 8 September. That would be the fourth increase this year, and the first since 6 May, when the cash rate reached 4.35 per cent.

All four big banks now forecast a rise next week. CBA brought its call forward from November on Monday, citing oil prices, stronger data and the Reserve Bank's own signalling. ANZ joined it, and added a second rise in November that would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest since the global financial crisis, according to Canstar.

The Board's officials keep pointing the same way. Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary committee on Friday that "some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising". At a CEDA lunch in Sydney today she said policy "needs to continue to focus on making sure that we limit indirect effects and we try to keep inflation expectations anchored". Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said this morning the Board remains "very concerned about inflation".

November is where the forecasts split. Capital Economics expects September to be the last move. CBA's base case is one rise, and it calls another a clear risk. RBC's Robert Thompson says September "now seems all but a lock, with November becoming the more contentious decision-point", and the market put a November follow-up at 37 per cent on Friday.

Borrowers are asking the same question. One r/AusFinance thread this month asked whether 5.84 per cent fixed for three years was worth taking. The replies split, and u/MDInvesting put it plainly: locking a rate "is useful for certainty but not necessarily will put you ahead financially".

Two of our numbers are worth checking against your own rate. The cheapest comparison rate is Greater Bank's variable loan at 5.85 per cent (5.84 per cent advertised), and the cheapest three-year fix is Up's at 6.06 per cent comparison (6.35 per cent advertised). If a 0.25 point rise is passed on in full, a $750,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest, costs about $120 more a month. The August jobs figures land Thursday, the last major data before the decision. Our series shows the cash rate change the morning after; lender variable rates take longer.