RBA rate forecast: what the market expects in September 2026
by RatesBoard · 3 min read
Rates as at 17 Sept 2026
The ASX futures market ended Monday pricing a 76 per cent chance of a rate rise at the Reserve Bank's next meeting, on 29 September. On 25 August, the day before July's inflation figures landed, it sat at 12 per cent. A rise would take the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, a 15-year high.
The four biggest banks now all expect another rise before the end of the year. Until late August, all four expected the cycle to be over. ANZ moved first, hours after July's figures, and called November. NAB went the next day and picked September, saying the figures showed inflation "running hotter than the RBA expected". CBA switched to November on the same day as NAB, and Westpac held out until 8 September before joining the November camp, citing stronger household incomes and data centre spillovers. Citi expects two more rises this year, to a 4.85 per cent peak, and Macquarie says a rise this month is all but certain.
| Forecaster | Next move | Meeting | Rate if right |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB | +0.25 points | 29 September | 4.60% |
| ANZ | +0.25 points | 3 November | 4.60% |
| CBA | +0.25 points | 3 November | 4.60% |
| Westpac | +0.25 points | 3 November | 4.60% |
The two meetings sit either side of the next inflation numbers. The 29 September decision lands the day before August's figures. The 3 November meeting lands after the September quarter figures, alongside a fresh set of RBA forecasts. CBA's team says the earlier meeting will not have enough data in hand; NAB points to July's figures and the Board's repeated signalling on upside risks.
The Reserve Bank has spent the month saying versions of the same thing. The August statement kept "increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise" on the table. The minutes record that "several members judged that it was quite possible that the upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallise, requiring some further tightening". On Monday, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the risks are "skewed to the upside", pointing at oil: crude hit a four-month high of $US102 a barrel after an attack on a Saudi pipeline.
On our board, the cash rate has sat at 4.35 per cent since 6 May. The fixed side is where lenders price the year ahead, and it moved this month. Macquarie lifted all five of its fixed terms on 8 September, by 0.15 to 0.30 points. Great Southern Bank lifted four on 11 September, by 0.10 to 0.25. The cheapest comparison rate on the board is still Up's variable loan at 5.95 per cent.
None of this is settled. Much of the inflation in play starts on the supply side, and rate rises work by weakening demand instead. The RBA's own community survey found only a quarter of Australians believe higher rates bring inflation down, while more than half think they push prices up. As CBA's Belinda Allen said: "A rate rise is not a done deal." If one lands, it adds about $97 a month to a $600,000 loan over 30 years, principal and interest.